Last week (December 30-January 3) A-share market came out of the open, the Shanghai index rose%, reported closing point, Shenzhen growth rose%, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 up%, small and medium-sized board index up%, gem up%.
On the sector side, last week's Citic-level sector all had a different range of gains, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, building materials, textile and clothing, non-ferrous metals and so on, rising by%,%,% and%.
Synthesizing each agency's viewpoint, each agency thinks this central bank reduces in line with market expectation, and optimistic spring market. Looking ahead to 2020, the 5G development driven by the technology sector and brokerage, real estate and other undervalued sectors are favored by institutions.
We believe that this reduction is mainly aimed at ensuring liquidity and lowering costs, mainly lowering bank costs; and that the effect of the \"MLF-LPR \"( the \"MLF-LPR \"mechanism) would be more pronounced and more signalling for asset prices. We tend to see a \"rate cut \"at least after the second quarter, as short-term downward pressure slows, with MLF-intensive maturities in the second half of the year, while keeping pace with overseas easing.
Guangfa believes that the reserve ratio cut in the forecast, can be seen as a confirmation of market optimism. At the same time, DR007 also shows that the current liquidity is quite abundant.
In terms of risk appetite, the geopolitical issue between the u.s. and iran may have an impact on short-term risk appetite, but we don't think the u.s. and iran issue is likely to emerge as a full-blown conflict, the current macro context or the global economic recovery and risk appetite recovery, so we think the spring market will continue.
Industry configuration, proposed along the low valuation repair and high landscape growth two main line layout. Among them, the restoration of underestimated value can focus on brokerage, real estate, building materials and other industries, high growth is focused on communications intergenerational upgrading of the industrial chain landscape and new energy auto industry chain. At the same time, after entering January, the annual forecast will be a catalyst for the growth of technology, recommending industries including electronics and media.
The background computing power of cloud games is provided by cloud computing, and its architecture is ripe. The most important factor affecting the effect of cloud game experience is delay. Compared with the local game, cloud game increases the coding delay, network transmission delay, terminal decoding delay and other fluidized processing delays. Among them, the cloud image capture, video coding delay is mainly affected by the cloud computing platform of game manufacturers, the terminal decoding delay is affected by the user terminal, and the network transmission delay is affected by the communication network.
The arrival of the 5G era will greatly promote the development of the cloud game industry. After the user changes the 5G mobile phone, the mobile phone decoding processing ability is stronger, and the terminal decoding delay is reduced. The current 4G empty port delay is 10ms, and the empty port delay in the 5G technical standard is reduced to 1ms, and the low delay characteristic of 5G helps to reduce the network transmission delay, which will reduce the Catton of the game and greatly improve the user's game experience. At the same time, cloud games have higher code rate than HD video, and consume more traffic than streaming media, which is expected to become an important application scene for 5G business of operators.
We feel that the real focus of investment in the future is no longer a simple growth or value judgment, and that there are opportunities for both. The more important dimension should be to combine the ups and downs of the industry, and with the change of competition environment, competition pattern, and the change of the fundamentals of related listed companies in some subdivisions, there will continue to be more very good investment opportunities in both growth and value areas.
In the first half of 2020, focus on the \"double inverse \", that is, the reverse economic cycle, the industry and the plate of the reverse trade war. We believe that the first relative certainty of 2020 comes from the continuation of the technology sector, which focuses on the \"double inverse\" area, that is, the reverse economic cycle, the industry and the plate of the reverse trade. The industry that used to be the reverse economic cycle was mainly \"iron-based \", and now the reverse economic cycle is mainly\" new infrastructure \", which is also the area that the government strongly advocates and supports.
In the future, the subdivision with strong deterministic opportunities, one is 5G technology-related industry chain opportunities, from semiconductor chips, semiconductor equipment, communication equipment, 5G applications, etc. Its core is the Internet of Things below 5G.
The stagflation of the cyclical sector or ushered in a systematic valuation repair opportunities. Cyclical stocks, or some of the traditional sectors of the broad blue chip cycle, are currently at the bottom of the valuation level as a whole, such as the hotly debated cycle of the year. From the historical experience, what money does the cycle stock earn? Much of it comes from mispricing (low) stocks due to excessive pessimism about the macro economy or industry, followed by a chance for Davis to double-click.
In 2019, in the process of continuing downwards in the macro-economic context, although there are some of the leading profitable companies, the market has a lower valuation of the cyclical broad categories of varieties, and the 2019 market outlet is not here. Thus, the low valuation of current cyclical stocks actually contains relatively full pessimism, and we believe that with a series of early signs of liquidity easing, such as lowering at the beginning of the year, followed by signs of macroeconomic stabilisation, the inflection point of the traditional cyclical sector's performance is likely to emerge at any time, taking the lead in repairing low valuations under gloomy expectations. This is worthy of our 2020 full year, go to the stage to focus on the place.
Other areas such as traditional consumer goods such as medicine, food and beverage. Overall, the valuation level has risen systematically in the last two or three years, and many companies have reached a relatively reasonable position.
In the next phase, we judge that investment opportunities in traditional consumer categories may emerge with relatively more segmented circuit, thematic or even individual stock opportunities, such as consumer sinks, some opportunities contained in the post-real estate cycle.